Sunday, November 24, 2013

Thanksgiving Week Forecast

We'll have a chance for some light rain and wintry mix Monday afternoon through Tuesday but it shouldn't be a problem. At least that's the way it looks right now. The biggest thing for the week will be cool temperatures.  As for Thanksgiving, right now it looks like sunshine and highs in the 40s.






Latest Paducah, Kentucky, weather conditions and forecast


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Wednesday, November 20, 2013

Showers, then COLD, then SNOW?

An approaching front brings showers, especially Thursday night through Friday night.  Once that cold front gets through temperatures will start DROPPING. In fact, watch out for possible overnight lows Saturday night in the upper TEENS to around 20.  After that temperatures slowly moderate, but a disturbance could bring a chance of rain and SNOW Monday-Tuesday.  At this point, we're not expecting a big snow and we're not expecting any problems with it, but you COULD see some snow mixed in with some rain through the first of next week.






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Monday, November 18, 2013

Observations on the Brookport, IL Tornado, Sunday, November 17, 2013

Thoughts and prayers go out to the people of Brookport, Illinois in the aftermath of a devastating tornado there Sunday, November 17th, 2013. Three people were killed and dozens upon dozens of homes were destroyed by an EF-3 Tornado.  I remember covering a tornado in Massac County more than 10 years earlier which took a path just North and West of this one. It's interesting how technology has evolved since then. I have to think the advanced technology today allowed us to give earlier analysis and warnings which probably saved many lives.  Here's a look at a few of the things I was looking at Sunday, along with some amazing video, in chronological order.

Throughout the preceding days, I was watching the model data which showed severe weather indices ramping up, indicated an increased chance for severe storms and tornadoes for Sunday. 

Sunday morning, I saw lines of thunderstorms increasing Southwestward, into our region

I saw the storms rapidly intensify, and then become tornadic in SE Missouri.  I also projected the storms could continue NEward toward our area.  I've seen it so many times before.  Storms which start spinning seem to continue to spin in these conditions and drop continuous tornadoes 


Huge signature near Oran, MO. Could have been a debris ball? But significant enough  to know that a major tornado was probably happening.

At this point, I switched to radial velocity mode, as I wanted to see the wind field.  Note NW of LaCenter, KY, you'll see red and green nearby, indicating opposing winds (rotation)

Watch this amazing footage from a tow boater, as he videoed the tornado moving across the Ohio River, into Illinois and Brookport, IL






As the storm approached Brookport, IL, note the bright colors, indicated winds in excess of 100 mph.  I knew this was probably a very powerful tornado.

Then leaving Brookport, note the bright colors, and especially the opposing red and green pixels, indicating opposing wind directions (rotation).  I knew a strong tornado had been through.
The tornado continued East and passed over the Ohio River again, and then just south of Smithland, KY, before proceeding eastward.

Here's Paducah's National Weather Service assesment:
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
428 PM CST MON NOV 18 2013

...DAMAGE SURVEY RESULTS FOR MASSAC AND POPE COUNTIES...

NOTE: THIS DAMAGE TRACK EXTENDS INTO KENTUCKY AND THEREFORE THESE RESULTS
WILL CHANGE UPON COMPLETION OF THE DAMAGE SURVEY.

* EVENT TYPE.........EF3 TORNADO

* EVENT DATE.........SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 17, 2013

* EVENT TIME.........220 PM

* EVENT LOCATION.....JUST WEST OF BROOKPORT IL TO 1.5 MILES SW OF HAMLETSBURG IL

* PEAK WIND..........145 MPH

* MAX PATH WIDTH.....500 YARDS (AVERAGE WIDTH APPROX. 225 YARDS)

* PATH LENGTH........11.5 MILES

* INJURIES...........13 PLUS

* FATALITIES.........3

* DAMAGE DETAIL......DOZENS OF MOBILE HOMES DESTROYED; MANY BLOWN 100 FEET OR MORE.
ONE HOME LEVELLED WITH DOZENS OF HOMES, GARAGES, STORAGE BUILDINGS,
BUSINESSES AND OTHER BUILDINGS STRUCTURALLY DAMAGED. SEVERAL CARS
AND A SCHOOL BUS TOSSED AROUND. AT LEAST HUNDREDS OF TREES SNAPPED
AND UPROOTED. DAMAGE WAS IN BROOKPORT AND ALONG AND NORTH OF UNIONVILLE
ROAD TO THE OHIO RIVER SOUTHWEST OF HAMLETSBURG.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
626 PM CST MON NOV 18 2013

...DAMAGE SURVEY RESULTS FOR UNION AND HENDERSON COUNTIES...

* EVENT TYPE.........EF3 TORNADO

* EVENT DATE.........SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 17, 2013

* EVENT TIME.........241 PM

* EVENT LOCATION.....1.2 MILES NORTHWEST OF MORGANFIELD TO 1 MILE EAST OF CORYDON.

* PEAK WIND..........145 MPH

* MAX PATH WIDTH.....200 YARDS

* PATH LENGTH........14.5 MILES

* INJURIES...........0

* FATALITIES.........0

* DAMAGE DETAIL......CHURCH ROOF LIFTED AND BLOWN SIDEWAYS. NUMEROUS HOMES WITH ROOF
DAMAGE...SOME SUBSTANTIAL STRUCTURAL DAMAGE. ONE HOME WITH TOTAL
ROOF LOSS. NUMEROUS HARDWOOD TREES SNAPPED OR UPROOTED...SOME WERE
VERY LARGE. SEVERAL BARNS AND OUTBUILDINGS DESTROYED. ONE MOBILE
HOME SLID OFF FOUNDATION. ANOTHER MOBILE HOME DISINTEGRATED
(NO WALLS...ROOF OR FLOORING FOUND) AND STEEL I-BEAM UNDERCARRIAGE
THROWN 50 YARDS WITH TIE DOWN STRAPS SHEARED OFF (THEY WERE IN CONCRETE).
LARGE STEEL CONSTRUCTED BARNS/STORAGE BUILDINGS DESTROYED...STEEL I-BEAMS
ALONG ROOF WERE TWISTED. FULL GRAIN BINS HAD TOPS BLOWN OFF. METAL FOUND
IN FIELDS AND WRAPPED AROUND TREES ALONG PATH. NUMEROUS POWER LINES
DOWN...SOME POWER POLES BLOWN OVER. ONE WELL BUILT HOME HAD A TWO CAR GARAGE
COMPLETELY RIPPED OFF. WINDOWS AND DOORS ALSO BLOWN OUT OF HOME ALONG WITH
SIDING/ROOF DAMAGE.


The Week Ahead

Calmer weather for the next few days before another front moves closer and brings us a chance for showers.  That should begin Wednesday night and give us our best chance for showers on Thursday night into Friday as the front passes.

On the other side of the front is much colder air heading into the weekend.  We'll see lows Saturday night in the upper teens to low 20s and Sunday highs only in the mid 30s!






Latest Paducah, Kentucky, weather conditions and forecast


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Kentucky   Tennessee    

Illinois        Missouri
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Friday, November 15, 2013

Possible Tornadoes, Severe Storms Today!

A larger portion of the region has been upgraded from Slight to Moderate Risk for Severe Storms today and a larger portion of the expanded region has been upgraded from Moderate to HIGH risk.  On the map below you'll see most of the region is forecast to have a 10-15% chance of a tornado within a 25 mile radius, while the 30% region is forecast to have a 30% chance of a tornado within a 25 mile radius!

An approaching cold front is bringing the threat of severe storms and also tornadoes.  Along with the cold front, we'll have plenty of wind shear in play with strong low level winds and a strong jet stream overhead, which could combine to fuel supercells and severe storms.

Currently, it appears the greatest threat could be this afternoon, into the early evening, BUT the atmosphere will be ripe for the development of severe storms earlier today too.

Right now it appears the biggest threat will be high winds and possible tornadoes. The threat of tornadoes comes with the possible development of supercell storms, then as the  front prepares to pass through the area, the storms should form a squall line and move through. At that time the threat would be mostly damaging wind.

Make sure your weather radio is working and the batteries are charged. Make sure your cellphone is charged. Make sure you have a battery powered radio in case power goes out and tune to the official EBS stations: WKYX, WKYQ, WLLE, WPAD, WDDJ, WQQR. We will have team coverage on WKYX 94.3, 95.5, 570am and 1320am. Make sure you know where your safe place is, should severe storms approach!










Latest Paducah, Kentucky, weather conditions and forecast


CURRENT CONDITIONS:
Kentucky   Tennessee    

Illinois        Missouri
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RADAR:

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FORECASTS:

Severe WX Outlook:



Storm Shield Tornado Shelters (Click Here)

 Thunderstorm Outlooks: 


Hydrology:



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