Friday, February 28, 2014

Weekend Winter Storm UPDATE

A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for the entire region, beginning Sunday morning and continuing through noon on Monday! The biggest concerns are accumulations of ice!  (If you'd like to receive our weather updates via email, send an email to weather@61south.com  with the word Subscribe)

While we're expecting some rain possible tonight, there shouldn't be a problem with winter weather.  In fact, Saturday, we could see high temperatures in the mid 50s before the troublesome system approaches Saturday night.

Saturday night, after midnight, we could see rain began mixing with sleet and freezing rain heading into Sunday morning.  The big question is what will the temperatures do Sunday.  Some models show the freezing line making it's way south of the Ohio River by Sunday morning, while others hold  it off until around noon.  At that point, we'll be more susceptible to mixing with freezing rain and sleet.
Model showing the 32 degree (freezing) line reaching the Ohio River by 6AM Sunday morning.  Another holds it off until around noon.

The bulk of the precipitation with this storm is expected to fall Sunday PM and night into early Monday, and the total precipitation for this weekend into Monday could be between 1 and 2 inches.  Some of that will be regular rain, some will be sleet, some will be freezing rain, and some will be snow.  The biggest threat will be freezing rain and the possible ice accumulations which come along with it.  Once we top a quarter inch of ice, we start to see problems with downed trees and power lines, which leads to power outages.  Right now, there is a 40-50% chance our region gets at LEAST to the quarter inch mark, and a decent chance many of us will see MORE, if the current forecast verifies. (For a frame of reference, in the 2009 ice storm, we received 1-2" of ICE, so what we're predicting for this one is nowhere near that!)

Courtesy: NWS Paducah


Overnight Sunday into Monday morning, we'll see a changeover to snow, but the accumulations should be minimal for most of the area.  One model is showing about 3 or 4 inches or less.  Another model is showing virtually NO accumulation.  Now, if you're planning on traveling north from our region Monday, you could be looking at some big problems with heavy snowfalls.
Courtesy: NWS Paducah

This model shows 3 or 4 inches possible, especially north of the Ohio River, and 3 inches or less south of the Ohio.  Even this one shows little if any for the KenTenn.  Another model, however, shows virtually NO snow for any of us.

After the snow stops, the COLD will remain, with arctic air bringing us COLD temperatures with lows in the teens Monday and Tuesday night and highs in the 20s.  Highs return to the 40s Wednesday and the 50s by Friday.

Stay with us for the latest information and forecast updates on this system!  Remember, when the power's out, you can still hear our forecasts and live reports on Newstalk 94.7, 95.5, 570AM and 1320AM, along with The Mix 94.7 and Willie 102.1.


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Thursday, February 27, 2014

Winter Storm Watch This Weekend

A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for a portion of the region, beginning Saturday night! The biggest concerns are accumulations of ice!

Friday and Friday night, we could see some rain, and mixed with some snow, but not expecting much out of this at all!

Saturday night through Monday could bring us some significant wintry weather.  A lot cold change between now and then, BUT here's what our current thinking is.  Total precipitation could be a LOT, between 1 and 2 inches, but in what form?

Right now, it appears that we shouldn't see the best chance for snow until Monday.  In the meantime, Saturday night, should be mostly rain.  Sunday, we could see some rain mixed with some sleet and freezing rain.  Sunday night, we could see more sleet and freezing rain.
Sunday night. Possible rain, sleet and freezing rain for area
Midnight Sunday into Monday. Rain-Snow (red) line still to our north, but surface temperatures should be below freezing.

Monday, we could see the event end with a  changeover to all snow, but it remains to be seen how much as the bulk of the moisture will be gone by then, so we could be looking at a minimal amount of snow.  As we've been saying though.... a lot can change between now and then!!!
Monday at Noon.  Rain-Snow line down into West Tennessee.

Monday at Noon. Freezing mark well down into West TN

By Tuesday morning. Estimated snowfall at less than an inch

Stay with us for the latest information and forecast updates!  Remember, when the power's out, you can still hear our forecasts and live reports on Newstalk 94.7, 95.5, 570AM and 1320AM, along with The Mix 94.7 and Willie 102.1.


CURRENT CONDITIONS: 
 Kentucky   Tennessee      
Illinois        Missouri
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RADAR:
Paducah   Memphis    
St Louis Ft Campbell     

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Wednesday, February 26, 2014

Snow, Rain or Ice Friday, then again Sunday Into Monday

COLD for the next couple of days, then we're keeping our eye on 2 possible wintry events....

Friday: We'll have a chanced for some rain and/or snow as an upper level disturbance moves through the area, but at this point, it doesn't appear to be a major event! Any snow accumulations for our area, according to this model would be less than 2 inches, and there's a chance we might not see anywhere close to even that.

Sunday into Monday: THIS is the time frame we're most concerned about.  There's a possibility for a pretty good rain, snow OR ice!  Of course a LOT can change between now and then and quite frankly, the temperatures profiles from the various models are ALL OVER THE PLACE!  So since the system which should trigger the precipitation is still so far away, it's very difficult to determine what is going to fall where.  We'll have to get much closer to the event to have a better idea. Just be prepared and stay tuned.
This model run actually puts the "rain/ice/snow" line just north of, but close to, the Ohio River by Monday morning.  A change of just a few miles could make a big difference.
This graphic shows the percentage chance of 1 hour of more of freezing rain by Sunday morning, based on historically similar systems to the one expected the later part of this weekend.

Stay with us for the latest information and forecast updates!  Remember, when the power's out, you can still hear our forecasts and live reports on Newstalk 94.7, 95.5, 570AM and 1320AM, along with The Mix 94.7 and Willie 102.1.


CURRENT CONDITIONS: 
 Kentucky   Tennessee      
Illinois        Missouri
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RADAR:
Paducah   Memphis    
St Louis Ft Campbell     

SATELLITE:
Regional VIS   IFR      
Water Vapor   Menu
FORECASTS:

Hydrology:
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Monday, February 24, 2014

Snow To End February? Possible!

Cold temperatures tonight and into Wednesday, as another cold shot of air arrives!  We'll also have a chance for snow overnight, but not expecting more than a dusting, if that.  Temperatures will drop to the teens to near 20 tonight, and highs tomorrow will only be in the 20s to near 30!
Friday, we'll have another chance for rain and/or snow but right now, it appears NOT to be a major event.  More concern about Saturday night through Monday. Looks like we could see a fair amount of precipitation, but in what form? some models suggest mostly rain, while others suggest we could see a ice/snow event mixed in with some rain.  It all depends on the timing and placement of the ingrediants!  We'll see!  It'll probably be a few more days until things start to become more clear!



Stay with us for the latest information and forecast updates!  Remember, when the power's out, you can still hear our forecasts and live reports on Newstalk 94.7, 95.5, 570AM and 1320AM, along with The Mix 94.7 and Willie 102.1.


CURRENT CONDITIONS: 
 Kentucky   Tennessee      
Illinois        Missouri
Facebook   Twitter
RADAR:
Paducah   Memphis    
St Louis Ft Campbell     

SATELLITE:
Regional VIS   IFR      
Water Vapor   Menu
FORECASTS:

Hydrology:
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