Mid-South Meteorology

Saturday, December 7, 2013

Round 2 of Winter Weather Tonight-Sunday

Round 2 of some wintry weather is expected to make it's way across our region overnight tonight and into Sunday, but at this time, it's not too much to get too worked up about! Even so a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the region. It appears the most we could get out of this system is some light freezing rain or sleet in very small amounts. In fact, we could even see some temperatures move to around freezing Sunday and help melt away some of the ice and snow from Friday.

It looks like the biggest impacts will be travel overnight and Sunday morning with ice on roadways.

After that, we're heading into the deep freeze for a few days, with overnight lows dropping to the teens....even low teens for some of us, and highs only around the 30 degree mark! Brrr!

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Friday, December 6, 2013

Updated Snow/Ice Forecasts

Looks like snowfall totals, especially North of the Ohio, will be impressive, with some areas in the northern part of Southern Illinois receiving in excess of a foot of snow. Still appears south of the Ohio River, snowfall totals will fall off rapidly.

Ice on the other hand, might not be as much as a problem, as it appears for a good part of the region, it's falling more as sleet than freezing rain. The freezing rain is what sticks to power lines and causes them to weigh down and break.

Thursday, December 5, 2013

Estimated Power Outages and Durations In West Kentucky From Ice Storm

This is a new and experimental product from the National Weather Service which estimates power outages and durations from Winter Storms. In the case of of this storm, we're looking at 2 rounds of snow, sleet and freezing rain from Friday through Sunday. Obviously the areas with the least ice suffer the least damage to the electrical grid, while the areas with the most freezing rain will suffer the most damage. This graphic estimates impacts from both rounds expected this weekend.

Level 1: Short utility interruptions possible, just a few hours in duration

Level 2: Utility interruptions up to 12 hours possible

Level 3: Possible widespread interruptions of up to 5 days, with some damage to main lines

Level 4: Damage to many main lines, utility interruptions up to 10 days

Level 5: Catastrophic damage. Power outages for weeks.

Some Catastrophic Forecast Power Outages In West Tennessee

In NW Tennessee this winter storm will be very little snow but perhaps a lot of ICE. Here's a look at the 3 day forecast of possible ice impacts from 2 rounds of winter weather Friday through Sunday, with both rounds of winter weather, from the National Weather Service in Memphis:

Chances for Ice Accumulations Going Higher

With the current set up, for many of us, the chances for ice accumulations exceeding half an inch are going UP! This is not good news as this is when power outages greatly increase. With 1/4" to 1/2", outages begin, but with more than a half inch, they become more serious and prolonged.

We're already seeing the mix of sleet, freezing rain and snow become more widespread and it should overtake the entire region as we go through the night.

North of the Ohio River, it will be more SNOW than ICE with some getting up to about 8 inches, but SOUTH of the Ohio, it will be more ICE than SNOW.

Here's the latest briefing from the NWS Paducah:

Updates on Ice and Snow Forecast

The National Weather Service in Paducah says although freezing rain is moving into the area, they don't expect the "freezing line" to move south of the Ohio River before about 5-6PM.

The forecast is also changing, with accumulated snowfall totals going DOWN for Paducah....from the current 4-6 inches....down to an inch to an inch and a half.

The freezing rain at this time, is not expected to reach the KenTenn til late tonight, perhaps even midnight for Murray.

The BAD news is the forecast for ICE accumulation is going up slightly for Paducah, from around .30" of an inch to closer to .50". This is not a move in the right direction, as above .50" of ice is the threshold where we usually see bigger problems with power outages.

The updated forecast DOES EXPECT to go ABOVE that threshold for the SE and Eastern parts of our area. From Southern Graves County eastward, and northward to around Princeton. These could be the most troubling spots for ice damage.

Now, of course, this is ROUND 1. ROUND 2 will be Saturday night through Sunday and Sunday night. During this event, not a significant amount of extra precipitation is expected: around .10" ice and perhaps an inch or so of snow, however, whatever falls will probably not melt with temperatures so cold.

There is a slight chance some of the region could get above freezing Sunday, or perhaps some sunshine Saturday could aid in some melting or sublimation to hopefully get some of the snow and ice from round 1 outta the way, before round 2.