Update on Potential Winter Weather Sunday PM and Next Week

It appears we'll have a better chance of snow Sunday afternoon and night than we will next week.  Even Sunday though, it appears most snowfall totals will be around 2 inches or less, MOSTLY LESS, with the best chances for snowfall  located in Western Kentucky and especially in the KenTenn area.   

That being said, there is a chance we could have merely a dusting or no snow at all south of the Ohio River as one model is indicating! As with many of our Winter forecasts, this one is extremely difficult, with our region right on the line between precipitation types!  It could wind up shifting north or south! 

There is a Winter Weather Advisory Sunday afternoon and evening for Weakley and Henry Counties in Northwest Tennessee, along with the counties south of there, where the expectation is for a small coating of ice from freezing rain (.10" or so) and then up to an inch of snow or less. 

*Keep in mind, it doesn't take much in the way of wintry mix to cause at least temporary travel difficulties, so monitor what's going on and the latest forecasts before hitting the road!  Especially for you morning commute Monday morning! 

Tuesday into Wednesday: It appears at this time it will be mostly a rain, sleet and freezing rain event with perhaps a little snow mixed in. The area appearing most vulnerable for problems with ice from freezing rain and sleet is Southern Illinois with more rain rather than freezing rain in Western Kentucky and NW Tennessee.  There could be some locally heavy rainfall involved for Western Kentucky and NW Tennessee, while Southern Illinois could see enough icing to cause some problems with localized power outages, however, it should not come anywhere near a major ice storm.

Friday: Another system could bring another round of winter mix, but at this point, it appears snowfall should be minimal.

 This is the GFS forecast for the amount of snowfall by Monday at noon.  As you can see it is indicating less than 2 inches of snowfall.  The NAM model is calling for about the same thing south of the Ohio, but a lot more north of the river.  I'm thinking the NAM is overdoing the snowfall amount.  The European model is calling for virtually NO snowfall at all south of the Ohio River.

As with other winter forecasts, we won't know for sure where how much falls until it over!